As we saw yesterday, we see today, the election is absolutely tied. The forces at play are as big as America herself. This forces us to admit that our candidates are both flawed. But, it isn’t personal. The vastly deeper, vastly more powerful factor is that there are two definitions of America at war in this election. My own stance is in favor of something I call Common Sense America, and I date it back to Tom Paine’s great work of 1776. The entire reason I’ve supported Trump is that I believe him to be the voice of that America. To me, that is the real America. Clinton is, obviously, the leader of a very different vision. But, as a leader, she is abysmal. I don’t mean that because I oppose her. I mean that even those who believe in her America – and let’s call it something like New America – can barely tolerate their leader and only because they share the same New America vision. The important thing to understand, when viewing these charts, is that this is NOT Trump vs. Clinton, even when they are the ones running. Rather, it is Common Sense America vs. New America. It is these two forces that are currently tied.
So how is New America doing? It’s rising from below. It has NOT knocked Common Sense America out. What it has done is equaled Common Sense America’s force for the moment. What does that mean? Well, absolutely, Clinton may win, Trump may lose. These outcomes are 100% possible. But they are absolutely NOT certain. In fact, to be tied means equally that Trump may win and Clinton may lose. It is completely possible that having met in the middle, Trump will rise again for the final run, and Clinton will finally and effectively fall. No, neither of those things is happening right now. Either may. Still, looking at the chart objectively there is absolutely NO KNOWING. Yes, Clinton’s done well recently, to be sure. New America is a powerful idea. But, she has NOT established a new formation of dominance over Trump, yet. If she begins to do so, I will honestly acknowledge it. I am simply and factually stating that this has not yet occurred. And, if Trump, standing for Common Sense America begins to pull away and rise again, I’ll be the person proclaiming that right here. The fight isn’t over, friends. In fact, it may be that only now has the real fight begun.
When you’re for someone, or something, you hate to see it take any incoming hits. Common Sense America – led by Trump – is definitely taking hits. His resistance line is now 23 days old and you can see its steep decline. Remember that as a resistance line descends, it means that resistance is gaining strength. The forces opposing Trump, and opposing Common Sense America, are growing right now. They’re resisting more powerfully. They’re pushing Trump down. But what they have NOT done is broken his support line. Common Sense America is there, and in its own quiet way, is still rising. What does that mean? It might still mean a true landslide victory for Trump. Still 100% possible. Or, if support is broken, we may head the other way. We don’t yet know. What we do know is that the support line holds. How many supporters of Common Sense America are there? How many of them will vote? That is the real question.
Do you remember our conversation about Force Vectors? There, above, you see them. Clinton support has risen to meet strengthening Trump Resistance. Trump support has fallen to meet Clinton’s rising support. This is the image of a current tie, in almost perfect formation. Since her support is rising, if you’re a Clinton supporter viewing this chart you’re thrilled. But, as Trump supporters it is critical for us to remember it is ONLY her rising up to a tie. What we must do is this. We must face the fact the New America has so much power that it may well win. But, we must use that recognition to steel our resolve. We must determine to push – to resist – Clinton and her New America right back down again. My own trust is this. The Trump team is so good, that seeing the facts on the ground, they’ll know what to do. My personal resolve, however, is that as individuals, outsiders, we must all stand and rise in support of Common Sense America. It is her destiny that we are charged with protecting.
I was talking to a looney lefty on Facebook today. She said Trump is a Racist (tired false line) Why is Obama’s brother voting for Trump? Hear it from Malik in his own words.
Of all the micro analyses, this one is easily and by far the most difficult to read. Is a prediction of Clinton winning good for us, or bad for us? I’m not sure. Perhaps there’s a threshold where, if she gets quite yay so far, then it’s bad. But, people thinking she will probably win, and rebelliously voting against her anyway is surely a possible phenomenon. Also, there is the complacency factor both ways. Maybe many of her people assume she’ll win easily, and don’t feel they have to vote. Maybe many of our people feel that since he’s not automatically going to win, they must get out and vote. But, again, this one is the hardest for me to interpret since I’m not sure what is good and what is bad.
Clinton – The most dangerous factors about this graph are its gentle, continuous rise, and the fact that the resistance line often functions precisely as a support line would. If predicting her victory is bad for us, this is the worst chart we have to face. What I find most interesting though is the past three days of data. Her campaign has somehow reached out an virtually FORCED America to believe she’ll win, inevitably. My own reading is that she did this too soon, and with insufficient force to sustain through election. But, obviously, they’re doing a great job and the data here shows it.
Trump – You see the same three days of Clinton’s operation plummeting our side’s confidence. Hellacious. But, consider how clearly we remain above our long term support line, downward angled though it may be. A mid term support might be drawn far more gently angle3d, and what’s more, the recent rise might spring back in rapidly. That’s not merely hopeful thinking. The faster something falls, the faster it may rise again. So I repeat, I suspect that the Clinton camp released their operation too soon, and this rapid fall does not scare me right now. If, on the other hand, we don’t find support; if a new formation does not arise in coming days, that could well be deadly to us.
Both Campaigns – I can’t help it. I’m the eternal optimist. These two lines make me happy. I suspect that both will reassert themselves and that both are simply perfect for us. I know how easily wrong I might be, but that’s where I stand.
Listen to the part about Veterans and how we treat illegal immigrants better than many of our Vets.
Compare that with Hillary Clinton: VA scandal “not as widespread” as Republicans claim.
Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis – New Insight Daily – 21 October 2016
Although I’ve been employing support and resistance line analysis since the middle 80’s, I’ve never done it daily before this election. The fact that each day brings new insight shouldn’t be surprising, but somehow it is. Each day as new data is added, new formations pop up. Some are accepted, most not. But the constant ebb and flow a thing of beauty. Much like watching the tides come in and out, or the waves at the beach, the movement holds its own grace and force.
We never know even whether our data itself is right or wrong, let alone our interpretation. We do know that the joy of the moment is in full mental, emotional and spiritual engagement. We know we must do our best. In these moving numbers and lines, I see the best there is to do.
It never crossed my mind, before, that we might have two varying degrees of resistance. It is obvious to me now that we should expect to find such formations, looking at today’s numbers. What I believe they show is this. Reaching up is one thing. Reaching even higher is another. When you factor both into the analysis, though, the clear direction remains the same.
How do you NOT love a channel? Yes, I want to break out above this one, but this one will lead us to victory if we just stay in it…as we appear to be doing so far! Patience and diligence. No, they’re not my natural virtues. But, clearly, they’re the virtues this chart demands me to build upon.
What will happen now? Will Trump continue to rise? Will Clinton continue to fall? No one knows. No one. And be clear with me, I’m not predicting. What I am addressing is where we’ve been and where we are right now. Trump is above, Clinton below…for now. If you accept this data as I do, you can clearly see that we’re essentially tied, but that Trump’s support has been rising through the entire campaign season, and Clinton’s resistance has been growing.
Back in 1992 James Carville hung a sign in Bill Clinton’s Little Rock Arkansas campaign headquarters to keep them on message.
According to the research the Economy is still the number 1 issue on voters minds.
There is little doubt in the average American’s mind Donald Trump wins on the issues. You have to cut through the noise and the bull to see it. Lower Taxes, Jobs, Fair Trade, Health Care, Immigration, Military Cutbacks, Social Security, Helping Veterans and many other subjects revolve around the Economy. With a strong economy everything else falls in place or is much easier to manage.
Hillary Clinton represents “More of the Same” and Donald Trump is the “Agent of Change”. He has a vision for the future as well as the business experience to accomplish it.
It is important to remember his business reputation bringing his projects in on time and under budget.
New Lines. If you look at the Clinton Forecast chart, you’ll two new lines labeled as such. The brand new resistance line is a thing of such beauty and goodness it makes an analyst’s heart leap. As a chart analyst, you live for new lines. The other one is actually 32 days old. That line is “new” relative to the entire general election so far. The brand new line is 8 days old. I love do so love numbers. Changing focus now…
How proud is an analyst when old lines hold? To really follow the emotion, you have to get the technicalities. A line can be drawn connecting any two points. That’s just a line. It’s not a support or a resistance line until it’s been tested. Three points indicates a possible trend. And, if you ever try it for yourself, you’ll see it’s absolutely addictive. The longer your line holds, the mightier you feel. I am a prophet, you’ll say to yourself. I see the future!
You’ll be wrong about all that, but it will feel wonderful anyway and the addiction will be set.
Trump’s old lines that I’ve drawn…wait for it…his support line has been tested six times after the first two points. That means my support line has 8 points on it covering the entire general election so far. His resistance line only has four points, because it also functions equally as much as a support line, too. We’ll be talking about that more, soon, I predict.
This is SO MUCH FUN!
Clinton Campaign – A new line is an utterly glorious thing when it confirms what you want to see. And that’s okay. As an analyst the thing you have to fear the most is called “Confirmation Bias.” That term just means you see in the data what you wish for, regardless of what the data actually indicate. Every time you draw a line you have to challenge yourself: “Is this the line the data demands? Or, is this the line I WANT the data to give me?” And here’s another technical term: Dialectical Method. It dates back to Ancient Greece. You first say a positive thing, then a negative thing and then the outcome of blending them. It looks like this: 1.) Do I want this line? 2.) What line do I MOST NOT want? 3.) Where do I stand? So I confess, I adore my newest line. We’ll have to wait and see if it holds. Clinton’s new resistance line has, however, established itself and is in 100% accord with her old resistance line so absolutely, that I can’t not be happy. Ha!
Trump Campaign – Old lines, sit on the bench like bookends. Will it? Will Trump’s resistance line transform into a new support line? Oh, how does an analyst protect himself form this so passionate desire? It doesn’t matter. The fact that today’s data gives us yet another test of the long term Trump support line is…just delicious. We’re allowed our joy. Believe me, there’s plenty of pain on the journey. You take your joy when you can. Today’s newest test of Trump’s support line makes this analyst simply giddy with joy. I confess. Or, is that me bragging? You decide.
Both Campaigns – First, yesterday’s debate might have a tiny impact on the data you see graphed above. It’s possible, but we don’t know that. Tomorrow’s will have a certain amount of debate influence but still we can only guess how much. Second, the day after? Oh yeah. We’ll begin to know how the debate impacted both campaigns positions by then. My estimate is that it takes about 5 days’ worth of new data to give us the determination of the outcome. Again, I’m breaking discipline: Trump SO won the debate it’s silly. No, I’m not saying the election is already over. Yes, I am saying we MUST do everything in our power to help Trump win. But, I am also saying that our long term lines are going to hold, and hold true. If I’m wrong, I’ll be the guy telling you I was wrong. And then I’ll instantly attack you for not having done your job properly to save our nation. Thing is…I’m not wrong…