Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis October 22nd Campaign Forecast

Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis October 22nd Campaign Forecast

General Thoughts

As we saw yesterday, we see today, the election is absolutely tied.  The forces at play are as big as America herself.  This forces us to admit that our candidates are both flawed.  But, it isn’t personal.  The vastly deeper, vastly more powerful factor is that there are two definitions of America at war in this election.  My own stance is in favor of something I call Common Sense America, and I date it back to Tom Paine’s great work of 1776.  The entire reason I’ve supported Trump is that I believe him to be the voice of that America.  To me, that is the real America. Clinton is, obviously, the leader of a very different vision.  But, as a leader, she is abysmal.  I don’t mean that because I oppose her.  I mean that even those who believe in her America – and let’s call it something like New America – can barely tolerate their leader and only because they share the same New America vision. The important thing to understand, when viewing these charts, is that this is NOT Trump vs. Clinton, even when they are the ones running.  Rather, it is Common Sense America vs. New America.  It is these two forces that are currently tied.

 

Negative Correlation  of October 13th

Negative Correlation of October 13th

General Thoughts

Of all the micro analyses, this one is easily and by far the most difficult to read. Is a prediction of Clinton winning good for us, or bad for us? I’m not sure. Perhaps there’s a threshold where, if she gets quite yay so far, then it’s bad. But, people thinking she will probably win, and rebelliously voting against her anyway is surely a possible phenomenon. Also, there is the complacency factor both ways. Maybe many of her people assume she’ll win easily, and don’t feel they have to vote. Maybe many of our people feel that since he’s not automatically going to win, they must get out and vote. But, again, this one is the hardest for me to interpret since I’m not sure what is good and what is bad.

 

Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis October 21st Campaign Forecast

Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis October 21st Campaign Forecast

Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis – New Insight Daily – 21 October 2016

 General Thoughts

 Although I’ve been employing support and resistance line analysis since the middle 80’s, I’ve never done it daily before this election.  The fact that each day brings new insight shouldn’t be surprising, but somehow it is.  Each day as new data is added, new formations pop up.  Some are accepted, most not.  But the constant ebb and flow a thing of beauty.  Much like watching the tides come in and out, or the waves at the beach, the movement holds its own grace and force.

 We never know even whether our data itself is right or wrong, let alone our interpretation.  We do know that the joy of the moment is in full mental, emotional and spiritual engagement.  We know we must do our best.  In these moving numbers and lines, I see the best there is to do.


 Dornslife, LA Times, Political Polling Data, POLL Analysis, Veterans Voice

Clinton

It never crossed my mind, before, that we might have two varying degrees of resistance.  It is obvious to me now that we should expect to find such formations, looking at today’s numbers.  What I believe they show is this.  Reaching up is one thing.  Reaching even higher is another.  When you factor both into the analysis, though, the clear direction remains the same.

 

 


 Dornslife, LA Times, Political Polling Data, POLL Analysis, Veterans Voice

Trump

How do you NOT love a channel?  Yes, I want to break out above this one, but this one will lead us to victory if we just stay in it…as we appear to be doing so far!  Patience and diligence.  No, they’re not my natural virtues.  But, clearly, they’re the virtues this chart demands me to build upon.


 Dornslife, LA Times, Political Polling Data, POLL Analysis, Veterans Voice

Both

What will happen now?  Will Trump continue to rise?  Will Clinton continue to fall?  No one knows.  No one.  And be clear with me, I’m not predicting.  What I am addressing is where we’ve been and where we are right now.  Trump is above, Clinton below…for now.  If you accept this data as I do, you can clearly see that we’re essentially tied, but that Trump’s support has been rising through the entire campaign season, and Clinton’s resistance has been growing.

It’s The Economy Stupid – Change vs More Of The Same – Don’t Forget Healthcare

It’s The Economy Stupid – Change vs More Of The Same – Don’t Forget Healthcare

Back in 1992 James Carville hung a sign in Bill Clinton’s Little Rock Arkansas campaign headquarters to keep them on message.

According to the research the Economy is still the number 1 issue on voters minds.

There is little doubt in the average American’s mind Donald Trump wins on the issues. You have to cut through the noise and the bull to see it. Lower Taxes, Jobs, Fair Trade, Health Care, Immigration, Military Cutbacks, Social Security, Helping Veterans and many other subjects revolve around the Economy. With a strong economy everything else falls in place or is much easier to manage.

Hillary Clinton represents “More of the Same” and Donald Trump is the “Agent of Change”. He has a vision for the future as well as the business experience to accomplish it.

It is important to remember his business reputation bringing his projects in on time and under budget.

Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis October 20th Campaign Forecast

Scopelliti’s Dawn Analysis October 20th Campaign Forecast

New Lines.  If you look at the Clinton Forecast chart, you’ll two new lines labeled as such.  The brand new resistance line is a thing of such beauty and goodness it makes an analyst’s heart leap.  As a chart analyst, you live for new lines.  The other one is actually 32 days old.  That line is “new” relative to the entire general election so far.  The brand new line is 8 days old.  I love do so love numbers.  Changing focus now…

How proud is an analyst when old lines hold?  To really follow the emotion, you have to get the technicalities.  A line can be drawn connecting any two points.  That’s just a line.  It’s not a support or a resistance line until it’s been tested.  Three points indicates a possible trend.  And, if you ever try it for yourself, you’ll see it’s absolutely addictive.  The longer your line holds, the mightier you feel.  I am a prophet, you’ll say to yourself.  I see the future!

 You’ll be wrong about all that, but it will feel wonderful anyway and the addiction will be set.

 Trump’s old lines that I’ve drawn…wait for it…his support line has been tested six times after the first two points.  That means my support line has 8 points on it covering the entire general election so far.  His resistance line only has four points, because it also functions equally as much as a support line, too.  We’ll be talking about that more, soon, I predict. 

 This is SO MUCH FUN!

 

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